Uganda is setting its sights on an economic boom, with the government projecting average annual growth of 8% over the next five years momentum largely fueled by the long-anticipated start of oil production.
According to Finance Minister Matia Kasaija, crude oil output is expected to begin around mid-2026, a milestone that could propel the country’s growth into double digits during the 2026/27 fiscal year. The forecast marks the first time Uganda’s government has echoed the International Monetary Fund’s earlier prediction that oil production would usher in a period of rapid economic expansion.
“Growth will be anchored not only on oil, but also on strategic investments in transport, energy, and industrial development,” Kasaija said while presenting the budget strategy for the financial year beginning July 2025.
The government expects economic growth of about 7% in the year ending June 2026. From there, Uganda plans to scale up investments in oil and gas, transport networks, electricity generation, and industrial parks sectors seen as critical to sustaining long term development.
Uganda’s oil reserves, estimated at 6.5 billion barrels in the Albertine Rift Basin, represent one of the most significant untapped resources in sub-Saharan Africa. Global energy giants, including China’s CNOOC and France’s TotalEnergies, are already hard at work drilling wells and constructing a massive export pipeline to prepare for production.
For Uganda, a country with a young and fast-growing population, the stakes are high. Oil could provide a powerful catalyst for industrialization, job creation, and infrastructure development. But the challenge will be ensuring that the windfall translates into broad-based prosperity, rather than the pitfalls of resource dependence that have troubled other oil-rich nations.
If the government’s projections hold, the next five years could mark a turning point ushering in not just higher growth figures, but the foundation of a more modern and diversified Ugandan economy.
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